Integrated Climate Change Impact Assessment of the Coffee Sector Using a Combination of Agro-Ecological Niche Modeling and a Partial Equilibrium Model of the Agricultural Sector


Biophysical impact models project a highly negative direct impact of climate change on the coffee crop. As plantations have a lifespan of several decades pro-active adaptive actions must be taken now. Climate change impact assessments that intend to guide adaption policy should, certainly, include economic analysis. The project sets out to conduct an integrated climate change impact assessment for the coffee crop using a combination of agro-ecological niche modeling and the global partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM. A climatic suitability-yield relationship on 2`5”arcmin scale is estimated to model the impact of climate change. A time-slice approach is used that differentiates between a baseline and a progressive adaptation scenario. Impact hot-spots where coffee production is no longer feasible are identified and adaptation policy recommendations are derived.


Principal Investigators
Kirschke, Dieter Prof. Dr. Dr. h. c. (Details) (Agricultural Politics)

Duration of Project
Start date: 09/2011
End date: 08/2014

Research Areas
Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Sociology

Research Areas
Agrarpolitik, Kaffee, Klimawandel

Last updated on 2020-07-10 at 13:35