Agents of Change: Towards an Integrated Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems with Long-Term Investments

The overall goal of the project is to develop, implement, refine, and evaluate an integrated framework for climate change impact assessments for international market systems. The proposed work goes well beyond the traditional local-scale, case study approach of climate change impact assessments, and focuses instead on sub-sectoral assessments of industries with multiple production regions, which until now have been largely ignored in the assessment literature. The proposed work explicitly considers important economic factors and spatial-temporal
dynamics such as changing patterns of international trade and interactions among regional economic
options. Furthermore, the proposed work emphasizes market systems with long-term investments and
considers the feasibility of alternative adaptation strategies over time.
The challenge is to develop a framework that is tractable but realistic and that is applicable for a wide range of industries. The approach cannot be simply academic, but must be practical and useful to industry stakeholders and management in evaluating their potential vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options. This implies that data requirements must be reasonable, methods need to be developed for temporal and spatial scaling (both upscaling and downscaling) between hierarchical levels, and sensitivity of the assessment outcomes to uncertainty in observational data, model parametrizations, projected future changes, and other factors must be evaluated. To phrase it as a question - Can we demonstrate that it is possible, in spite of numerous constraints, to conduct an industry-wide assessment of the potential impacts of climate change that is meaningful to industry stakeholders and to do so within a framework that allows comparison and integration among different industries particularly within the same sector?

Chmielewski, Frank-M. Prof. Dr. rer. nat. habil. (Details) (Lehr-und Forschungsgebiet Gärtnerische Pflanzensysteme)

Projektstart: 01/2010
Projektende: 09/2015

Zuletzt aktualisiert 2020-07-10 um 14:00